ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global cereal production is expected to total approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This figure indicates a 2% decline from the record harvest achieved in 2025. Additionally, the projection is 3.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates. While experiencing an annual decrease, world cereal output would still rank as the second highest on record, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes compared to last year.
Much of this downward trend is driven by maize, with production expected to reach 1.309 billion tonnes. Drought and heat stress have lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. France and Poland recorded some of the most significant downward revisions. Meanwhile, India and Paraguay experienced smaller cuts, whereas increased yields in Argentina and Brazil helped counterbalance some of the decline. Both South American nations remain on track for maize crops well above their recent averages.
Although the global outlook for wheat has improved from earlier assessments, overall production remains below last year’s figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, representing a rise of 4.2 million tonnes from prior predictions. Better yield expectations have improved prospects for Canada and Morocco. Forecasts have also increased for Russia and Ukraine, but dry conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom have lowered estimates. Despite these positive adjustments, global wheat production is still 3.8% below 2025 levels.
Weakening maize production influences global grain supply
Projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, global rice output for the 2026/27 season is expected to decline by 1.9% from the previous season’s revised record. Improvements in rice yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka supported the latest outlook. However, weaker projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States limited the overall gain. U.S. rice planting area has also fallen to levels not seen in decades, reducing the country’s expected contribution to the global rice supply.
Global cereal consumption is forecasted at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, reflecting a 0.2% increase from the previous season. Use of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, while wheat consumption is anticipated to decline from last season’s high levels. The total global rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by increasing food demand associated with population growth. Additionally, feed consumption supports coarse grain usage, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Cereal stockpiles remain substantial despite a cautious outlook
End-of-season global cereal inventories for 2027 are estimated at 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes below previous forecasts but still 1.8 million tonnes above initial opening stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly down from 31.9% in the prior season. Wheat reserves are projected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas inventories of maize and barley have decreased, contributing to the overall reduction in stocks.
Trade in cereals worldwide for 2026/27 is anticipated to total 509.3 million tonnes, marking an increase of 1.7 million tonnes over earlier estimates. Despite this rise, the figure remains below the record volumes achieved in 2025/26. The increase is largely driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, representing a 1.9% decline from the record set in 2025.
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