GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – World Trade Organization has upgraded its projection for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This updated estimate more than doubles the 1.9 percent figure issued in March. The increase is supported by stronger trade activity in the first half of the year, shifts in supply chain dynamics, and growing investments in artificial intelligence equipment. During the first six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also anticipates merchandise trade will grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A significant factor behind the improved trade figures has been the surge in demand for technology hardware. Goods associated with artificial intelligence contributed to 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth in the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other components essential for computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-enabling products saw a 67 percent increase compared to the previous year. Moreover, WTO estimates indicate that global spending on AI infrastructure is expected to rise by at least 30 percent in 2026.
During the same period, energy and shipping markets experienced notable upheaval. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined by roughly 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Similarly, liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from other producing areas mitigated the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent globally. Meanwhile, LNG exports worldwide decreased by approximately 1 percent. Despite these disruptions, global container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade routes and port activities shifted across different suppliers and transportation channels.
Technological demand fuels growth in merchandise trade
Forecasts for the services sector, however, are less optimistic compared to merchandise. The WTO has lowered its 2026 growth forecast for commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. The disruptions in the Middle East adversely affected transport and international travel, resulting in a 0.8 percent decline in international tourist arrivals in the second quarter. Nonetheless, arrivals during the first half remained 0.4 percent above the same period in 2025. Additionally, growth in international travel expenditure slowed during the second quarter.
Yet, certain service categories continued to demonstrate faster expansion. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and are estimated to have risen by 12 percent in the second. Financial services exports grew 14 percent from the previous year in the second quarter. The World Trade Organization anticipates a 6.4 percent rise in commercial services trade in 2027. It also projects that global GDP will expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 before reaching 2.9 percent growth next year.
Asia shows the strongest regional export growth forecast
Regional outlooks reveal significant disparities in expected merchandise export performance. Asia is forecast to see a 9.9 percent increase in exports in 2026. North America follows at 5.7 percent, with Africa expected to grow by 5.6 percent. South America is projected to achieve 3.4 percent growth, while Europe is anticipated to decline slightly by 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the most challenging outlook, with merchandise exports predicted to drop by 17.2 percent over the year.
Import growth forecasts also differ markedly across regions. Asia is expected to record 9.5 percent growth in imports, and Africa is forecast at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to increase by 1.4 percent, while Europe is expected to see a 0.5 percent rise. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are forecast to fall by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted that recent trade figures demonstrate resilience despite uneven impacts from economic and geopolitical disruptions.