MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has sanctioned a comprehensive long-range coal industry plan that aims for an annual output of 662 million tonnes by 2050, aligning with its projected scenario. This strategy extends the nation’s coal policies into the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia’s coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes, making the new benchmark a notable increase from that figure. The Russian authorities approved this programme via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single fixed forecast, the plan proposes multiple production pathways. Its target scenario forecasts output reaching 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, then expanding to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, and ultimately hitting 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals for that year: a stress scenario estimates 318.9 million tonnes, a conservative approach anticipates 460.8 million tonnes, and an inertial scenario forecasts about 586.4 million tonnes.
Long-term export targets form a key part of the programme. Under the primary scenario, exports are projected to attain 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increase to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and reach 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan also addresses domestic consumption, processing capacities, mining techniques, and regional production distribution.
Eastern Siberia and Far East to Play Larger Role in Production
The government’s strategy prioritizes Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, allocating them a bigger share of national coal output. In 2024, these regions contributed 48.3% of Russia’s total coal production. By 2050, their combined share is expected to range between 53.9% and 56.7% across the different scenarios outlined in the plan. Russia also holds over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves. The programme emphasizes maintaining existing mining operations while developing additional resource zones to meet future production targets.
Coal extraction and processing methods are assigned specific numerical goals within the plan. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, accounted for 58.9% of total output. The strategy aims to boost this proportion to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mines produced 78.4% of Russia’s coal in 2024, with their share increasing to between 82% and 85% under the long-term projections. The programme also encompasses initiatives to improve labor productivity, advance mining technologies, enhance safety standards, and meet environmental requirements.
Three-Phase Implementation Plan Extends to 2050
The plan will be carried out in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, focuses on immediate industry development and production initiatives. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will target processing, utilization of coal, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase spans from 2037 until 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution of the programme alongside other federal and regional agencies, providing yearly updates to the Economic Development Ministry as mandated by government regulations.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised programme during a government session on September 21. It supersedes the previous coal industry plan through 2035, approved by Russia in 2020. Novak stated that the new strategy forecasts a sixfold increase in the coal sector’s gross value added by 2050, with the broader multiplier effect estimated at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne figure remains the target-scenario level but is not the sole possible production path outlined in the plan.